Chapter 02 Risk Factors

Overview

About half of all cancer deaths worldwide are attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors.

Among the numerous potentially modifiable risk factors for cancer, reductions in tobacco use, infectious agents, excess body fatness, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, alcohol consumption, excess exposure to ultraviolet radiation, environmental pollutants, and occupational exposures can have an important impact in reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with cancer in every part of the world. Exposures to these risk factors vary substantially across and within countries and are often associated with socioeconomic status (see Social Inequalities).

Smoking is the leading preventable cause of cancer incidence and mortality globally (see Tobacco). Smoking and smokeless tobacco cause at least 17 and three cancer types, respectively, and together account for one in five cancer deaths worldwide (Figure 2.1).

Smoking is the leading preventable cause of cancer incidence and mortality globally.

Figure 2.1

Proportion (%) of cancer burden attributable to major preventable risk factors globally, 2020/2021

Footnote

The cancer burden (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) attributable to smoking and excess body fatness is estimated based on 2021 cancer mortality data, while the burden linked to alcohol and infection is derived from 2020 cancer incidence data.

Infectious agents can cause a wide range of cancer types (see Infection). They account for about 12% of new cancer cases globally, ranging from one in 25 in some countries in North America and Oceania to one in four cancer cases in many Sub-Saharan African countries. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection alone accounts for more than one in five cancer cases in Botswana, Zambia, and Eswatini (Map 2.1), largely due to historically high infection rates and limited access to cervical cancer screening.

Excess body fatness, unhealthy diet, and physical inactivity cause multiple types of cancer (see Body Fatness, Physical Activity, and Diet). With a rising prevalence of these risk factors, the burden of cancers associated with these risk factors has been increasing in most parts of the world. Around 4% of all new cancer deaths globally are attributed to excess body fatness (Figure 2.1).

“The cancer miracle isn’t a cure. It’s prevention.”

—Madeline Drexler Editor, Harvard Public Health

A similar proportion of new cancer cases are attributable to alcohol consumption (see Alcohol). In addition, 70-90% of all cutaneous melanoma cases globally are attributable to excessive exposure to ultraviolet radiation from the sun and indoor tanning (see Ultraviolet Radiation).

Among adults, obesity has increased up to 3-fold across World Health Organization (WHO) regions and levels of income over the past three decades.

Figure 2.2

Age-standardized prevalence (%) of obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2) among adults (18+ years) in 1990 and 2022

WHO Region

World Bank Income Group

Other notable cancer risk factors include reproductive and hormonal factors (see Reproductive and Hormonal Factors), occupational exposures to carcinogenic agents, and environmental pollutants such as air pollution (Figure 2.3), arsenic, and aflatoxin (see Environmental Pollutants and Occupational Exposures). Climate change can also increase exposure to environmental pollutants (see Climate Change and Cancer).

Outdoor air pollution causes over 280,000 lung cancer deaths every year.

Figure 2.3

Number of lung cancer deaths attributable to outdoor air pollution by world region, 2021

Sources

Opening Statement

  • The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet. Aug 20 2022;400(10352):563-591. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01438-6

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  • Hiscock R, Bauld L, Amos A, Fidler JA, Munafò M. Socioeconomic status and smoking: a review. Ann N Y Acad Sci. Feb 2012;1248:107-23. doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.2011.06202.x
  • Islami F, Stoklosa M, Drope J, Jemal A. Global and Regional Patterns of Tobacco Smoking and Tobacco Control Policies. Eur Urol Focus. Aug 2015;1(1):3-16. doi:10.1016/j.euf.2014.10.001
  • Sreeramareddy CT, Acharya K. Trends in Prevalence of Tobacco Use by Sex and Socioeconomic Status in 22 Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2003-2019. JAMA Netw Open. Dec 1 2021;4(12):e2137820. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.37820
  • Vaccarella S, Georges D, Bray F, et al. Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality between and within countries in Europe: a population-based study. Lancet Reg Health Eur. Feb 2023;25:100551. doi:10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100551
  • Safiri S, Nejadghaderi SA, Abdollahi M, et al. Global, regional, and national burden of cancers attributable to tobacco smoking in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019. Cancer Med. Jul 2022;11(13):2662-2678. doi:10.1002/cam4.4647
  • de Martel C, Georges D, Bray F, Ferlay J, Clifford GM. Global burden of cancer attributable to infections in 2018: a worldwide incidence analysis. Lancet Glob Health. Feb 2020;8(2):e180-e190. doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(19)30488-7
  • Pearson-Stuttard J, Zhou B, Kontis V, Bentham J, Gunter MJ, Ezzati M. Worldwide burden of cancer attributable to diabetes and high body-mass index: a comparative risk assessment. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. Jun 2018;6(6):e6-e15. doi:10.1016/s2213-8587(18)30150-5
  • Rumgay H, Shield K, Charvat H, et al. Global burden of cancer in 2020 attributable to alcohol consumption: a population-based study. Lancet Oncol. Aug 2021;22(8):1071-1080. doi:10.1016/s1470-2045(21)00279-5
  • Arnold M, de Vries E, Whiteman DC, et al. Global burden of cutaneous melanoma attributable to ultraviolet radiation in 2012. Int J Cancer. Sep 15 2018;143(6):1305-1314. doi:10.1002/ijc.31527
  • El Ghissassi F, Baan R, Straif K, et al. A review of human carcinogens--part D: radiation. Lancet Oncol. Aug 2009;10(8):751-2. doi:10.1016/s1470-2045(09)70213-x
  • Bruni L, Diaz M, Castellsagué X, Ferrer E, Bosch FX, de Sanjosé S. Cervical human papillomavirus prevalence in 5 continents: meta-analysis of 1 million women with normal cytological findings. J Infect Dis. Dec 15 2010;202(12):1789-99. doi:10.1086/657321

Maps

  • Map 2.1: Global Cancer Observatory: Cancers Attributable to Infections (version 1.1). Lyon, France: International Agency for Research on Cancer. https://gco.iarc.fr/causes/infections/home. With additional data provided by author Gary Clifford.

Figures

  • Figure 2.1: Smoking/excess body fatness: Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet. May 18 2024;403(10440):2162-2203. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00933-4
  • Figure 2.1: Infectious Agents: de Martel C, Georges D, Bray F, Ferlay J, Clifford GM. Global burden of cancer attributable to infections in 2018: a worldwide incidence analysis. Lancet Glob Health. Feb 2020;8(2):e180-e190. doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(19)30488-7
  • Figure 2.1: Alcohol: Rumgay H, Shield K, Charvat H, et al. Global burden of cancer in 2020 attributable to alcohol consumption: a population-based study. Lancet Oncol. Aug 2021;22(8):1071-1080. doi:10.1016/s1470-2045(21)00279-5
  • Figure 2.2: World Health Organization. Global Health Observatory. Prevalence of obesity among adults, BMI ≥30 (age-standardized estimate). https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/prevalence-of-obesity-among-adults-bmi--30-(age-standardized-estimate)-(-). Accessed May 20, 2024.
  • Figure 2.3: Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet. May 18 2024;403(10440):2162-2203. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00933-4