Human Development Index Transitions

Figure 1. HDI and the top five cancers in males and females, cases in thousands, 2018. In 2018 in Very High HDI countries, there were 912 thousand Breast cancer cases in females; 491 thousand Colorectum cancer cases in males and 408 thousand in females; 545 thousand Lung cancer cases in males and 339 thousand in females; 802 thousand Prostate cancer cases in males; and 257 thousand Bladder cancer cases in males and 74 thousand in females. In 2018 in High HDI countries, there were 659 thousand Lung cancer cases in males and 315 thousand in females; 415 thousand Colorectum cancer cases in males and 323 thousand in females; 667 thousand Breast cancer cases in females; 387 thousand Stomach cancer cases in males and 181 thousand in females; and 339 thousand Liver cancer cases in males and 130 thousand in females. In 2018 in Medium HDI countries, there were 403 thousand Breast cancer cases in females; 155 thousand Lung cancer cases in males and 64 thousand in females; 206 thousand Cervix uteri cancer cases in females; 102 thousand Colorectum cancer cases in males and 72 thousand in females; and 126 thousand Lip, oral cavity cancer cases in males and 46 thousand in females. In 2018 in Low HDI countries, there were 106 thousand Breast cancer cases in females; 90 thousand Cervix uteri cancer cases in females; 54 thousand Prostate cancer cases in males; 18 thousand Colorectum cancer cases in males and 20 thousand in females; and 21 thousand Liver cancer cases in males and 12 thousand in females.

Figure 2. Leading causes of premature mortality (%) (ages <70 years) in South Africa and Japan. In South Africa, the leading causes of premature mortality among those less than 70 years of age are infectious and parasitic diseases (45%), cardiovascular diseases (10%), malignant neoplasms (10%), respiratory infectious diseases (6%), and other causes (24%). In Japan, the leading causes of premature mortality among those less than 70 years of age are malignant neoplasms (45%), cardiovascular diseases (21%), intentional injuries (8%), digestive diseases (5%), unintentional injuries (5%), and other causes (17%).

Figure 3a. In low HDI countries, the most commonly diagnosed cancers among males are prostate (20.5%); colorectum (7%); liver (8%); non-Hodgkin lymphoma (6.4%); and Kaposi sarcoma (6.3%). Other sites make up the remaining 51.7% of cancer cases. In medium HDI countries, the most commonly diagnosed cancers among males are lung (13.6%); prostate (8.8%); colorectum (8.3%); liver (10.6%); and stomach (5.3%). Other sites make up the remaining 53.4% of cancer cases. In high HDI countries, the most commonly diagnosed cancers among males are lung (13.2%); prostate (21.2%); colorectum (10.4%); stomach (6.3%); and bladder (4.9%). Other sites make up the remaining 43.9% of cancer cases. In very high HDI countries, the most commonly diagnosed cancers among males are lung (14.4%); prostate (21.2%); colorectum (13%); stomach (5.4%); and bladder (6.8%). Other sites make up the remaining 39.3% of cancer cases. In China, the most commonly diagnosed cancers among males are lung (22%); colorectum (12.9%); liver (12.4%); stomach (13.6%); and esophagus (9.1%). Other sites make up the remaining 30% of cancer cases. In India, the most commonly diagnosed cancers among males are lung (8.6%); colorectum (6.5%); stomach (6.9%); esophagus (6%); and lip and oral cavity (16.3%). Other sites make up the remaining 55.7% of cancer cases. In low HDI countries, the most common causes of cancer death among males are prostate (16.2%); colorectum (7.1%); liver (10.8%); stomach (6.1%); and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (6.7%). Other sites make up the remaining 53.1% of cancer deaths. In medium HDI countries, the most common causes of cancer death among males are lung (17.3%); colorectum (6.7%); liver (14.4%); stomach (6.3%); and esophagus (5.8%). Other sites make up the remaining 49.6% of cancer deaths. In high HDI countries, the most common causes of cancer death among males are lung (20.7%); prostate (10.9%); colorectum (9.3%); liver (7.2%); and stomach (8.7%). Other sites make up the remaining 43.3% of cancer deaths. In very high HDI countries, the most common causes of cancer death among males are lung (24.4%); prostate (9%); colorectum (11.5%); liver (6.3%); and pancreas (6.5%). Other sites make up the remaining 42.3% of cancer deaths. In China, the most common causes of cancer death among males are lung (26.4%); colorectum (8%); liver (15.3%); stomach (15.2%); and esophagus (11.1%). Other sites make up the remaining 24% of cancer deaths. In India, the most common causes of cancer death among males are lung (11.1%); colorectum (7%); stomach (8.6%); esophagus (7.6%); and lip and oral cavity (12.4%). Other sites make up the remaining 53.4% of cancer deaths.

Figure 3b. In low HDI countries, the most commonly diagnosed cancers among females are breast (26.8%); cervix (22.8%); colorectum (5%); ovary (3.7%); and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (3.1%). Other sites make up the remaining 38.6% of cancer cases. In medium HDI countries, the most commonly diagnosed cancers among females are breast (27.8%); cervix (12.6%); colorectum (6.1%); lung (5.2%); and ovary (4.8%). Other sites make up the remaining 43.5% of cancer cases. In high HDI countries, the most commonly diagnosed cancers among females are breast (27.7%); cervix (6.9%); colorectum (9.8%); lung (5.5%); and thyroid (6.2%). Other sites make up the remaining 44% of cancer cases. In very high HDI countries, the most commonly diagnosed cancers among females are breast (27%); colorectum (12%); lung (10%); thyroid (5%); and corpus uteri (6%). Other sites make up the remaining 40% of cancer cases. In China, the most commonly diagnosed cancers among females are breast (19.3%); colorectum (11.4%); lung (13.4%); thyroid (7.7%); and stomach (7.2%). Other sites make up the remaining 41% of cancer cases. In India, the most commonly diagnosed cancers among females are breast (27.9%); cervix (16.6%); colorectum (3.4%); ovary (6.2%); and lip and oral cavity (4.8%). Other sites make up the remaining 41% of cancer cases. In low HDI countries, the most common causes of cancer death among females are breast (20%); cervix (24.8%); colorectum (5.2%); ovary (4.4%); and liver (4.5%). Other sites make up the remaining 41.1% of cancer deaths. In medium HDI countries, the most common causes of cancer death among females are breast (19.3%); cervix (12.5%); colorectum (6.2%); lung (8.1%); and liver (6.4%). Other sites make up the remaining 47.6% of cancer deaths. In high HDI countries, the most common causes of cancer death among females are breast (16.7%); cervix (7.3%); colorectum (10.5%); lung (10.1%); and stomach (6.8%). Other sites make up the remaining 48.6% of cancer deaths. In very high HDI countries, the most common causes of cancer death among females are breast (14.5%); colorectum (12.5%); lung (17%); ovary (4.7%); and pancreas (7.9%). Other sites make up the remaining 43.5% of cancer deaths. In China, the most common causes of cancer death among females are breast (9.2%); colorectum (9.8%); lung (20.4%); stomach (11.1%); and liver (9%). Other sites make up the remaining 40.4% of cancer deaths. In India, the most common causes of cancer death among females are breast (23.6%); cervix (16.3%); lung (4.9%); ovary (6.5%); and lip and oral cavity (5.9%). Other sites make up the remaining 42.9% of cancer deaths.

Figure 4. Estimated millions of new cancer cases in 2018 and the projected increase by 2040 by four-tier HDI level, assuming only a demographic effect. Estimated cancer cases will increase by 100% from 2018 to 2040 in low-HDI countries, from 0.7 to 1.4 million. Estimated cancer cases will increase by 75% from 2018 to 2040 in medium-HDI countries, from 2.8 to 4.9 million. Estimated cancer cases will increase by 62% from 2018 to 2040 in high-HDI countries, from 6.5 to 10.5 million. Estimated cancer cases will increase by 32% from 2018 to 2040 in very high-HDI countries, from 8.1 to 10.7 million.